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At first, the former US president seemed to take a strong position concerning Ukraine. After delivering threats of "severe consequences" in August in case Russia's president carried on blocking peace talks, he ultimately introduced major sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

But, via his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, that was developed by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's initiative would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in danger. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan in reality compromise that very sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, Trump persists to view the war as a basic land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the president. However, Russia's military campaign is not merely about occupying a damaged swath of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in position the currently split oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that are a essential barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a open route to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would enable renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any extremist doctrine and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader endanger his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "establish in law its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the region to Kyiv – how should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars include vague to concerning. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional parallel deal according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "serious, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary protection against additional invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to act with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not