A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
